Analyst agency Trendforce has forecasted that the typical promoting worth of NAND Flash, the essential constructing block of all SSD (Strong State Drives) and microSD cards will fall by as much as 15% through the present quarter. It has already been down by nearly 25% during the last quarter prompting the most important producers; Kioxia, Solidigm, Micron and WDC to slash manufacturing with a purpose to scale back provide out there.
Weak demand within the client and enterprise SSD prospects mixed with Samsung’s reluctance to maintain producing as a lot NAND as doable implies that the worth drop we’ve seen over the previous 12 months throughout SSD and microSD merchandise will doubtless keep on unabated with smaller capacities regularly phased out.
Samsung is the most important NAND Flash vendor and has already dedicated to investing closely in R&D with a purpose to keep forward of rivals. SK Hynix and Micron introduced in 2022 that they might launch 238-layer and 232-layer merchandise respectively which – on paper – will dramatically carry down the price of Terabyte for strong state drives.
For apparent causes, no vendor has but launched PLC (penta degree cell) NAND, the following technological breakthrough which can allow even cheaper, excessive capability SSD.
Information massacre by Christmas 2023?
The most cost effective 1TB microSD playing cards are presently promoting for round $75 at Amazon, a close to 50% worth drop in comparison with a yr in the past. Whereas we don’t anticipate costs to half, one other 30% drop by the top of the yr seems to be cheap, which might carry the worth of a 1TB microSD card nearer to $50.
This is able to have a knock on impact on smaller capacities (512GB, 256GB, 128GB) and we anticipate 64GB and 32GB microSD to be pushed out of the market altogether.
The identical applies for USB flash drives the place the most cost effective real 256GB fashions are presently promoting for round $10 with distributors resorting to multi-pack affords with a purpose to entice prospects with decrease capacities. The truth that many current laptops wouldn’t have a Kind-A connector or a microSD card slot additionally dramatically reduces the scale of the entire addressable market.
Probably the most thrilling market stays that of SSD the place prospects are having an absolute discipline day as costs proceed happening. The most cost effective SSD per TB on the time of writing is the Leven JS600 ($74.99 for 1.92TB), an additional drop of round 30% over the following 9 months will see it attain parity with smaller capability laborious disk drives just like the Seagate Barracuda ST2000DM008.
These low-cost fashions are 2.5-inch SATA storage gadgets and since they’re defacto outfitted with a SATA connector, they need to quickly supplant exterior laborious drives with a capability of as much as 2TB as nicely. Two traits although that’s price making an allowance for: 2.5-inch drives are on the best way out in addition to they’re being changed by M.2 PCIe drives.
Bigger capability laborious drives are protected for now however it’s solely a matter of time earlier than the following tier (3TB, 4TB) are on the best way out. A 4TB SSD from Leven retails for $180, nonetheless about twice the worth of a 4TB WD Passport laborious disk drive for instance.